Friday 29 November 2013

The Geneva Accord Leaves Israel out on a Limb

"What was concluded in Geneva last night is not a historic agreement, it's a historic mistake. It's not made the world a safer place. Like the agreement with North Korea in 2005, this agreement has made the world a much more dangerous place. I know that many share the concern of Israel, especially in the region and there is a reason for this. For years the international community has demanded that Iran cease all uranium enrichment. Now, for the first time, the international community has formally consented that Iran continue its enrichment of uranium. This is in direct contravention of UN security resolutions. Iran is taking only cosmetic steps which it could reverse easily within a few weeks, and in return, sanctions that took years to put in place are going to be eased. Iran is going to receive billions of dollars worth of sanctions release. So the pressures on Iran are being lifted and eased, and with this pressure this first step could very well be the last step. Without continued pressure, what incentive does the Iranian regime have to take serious steps that actually dismantle its nuclear weapons capability? Why would it dismantle the centrifuges and plutonium rectors? None of this is covered in the agreement. They are left in tact. So Israel is not bound by this agreement. We cannot and will not allow a regime which calls for the destruction of Israel, to obtain the means to achieve this goal. We will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapons capability. Israel has many friends and allies but when they are mistaken, it is my obligation to speak out clearly and openly and say so. It is my solemn responsibility to protect and defend the one and only Jewish state..."
This was the reaction of Benjamin Netenyahu, Israel's Prime Minister, after world powers agreed to what has become known as the "Geneva Accord" signed at 4am last Sunday 24th November. The agreement permits Iran to continue to develop its nuclear capabilities for the first time and was made with the so called "P5+1":  the United States, Great Britain, France, China and Russia along with Germany.

Why were there Sanctions against Iran?
Much of the media and politicians in the western world have heralded the deal as a positive step towards world peace. However Israel responded disparagingly. What the western media seems to have failed to report on is why? Why are Israel so enraged? Why were there sanctions against Iran in the first place?

After the Islamic revolution in Iran of 1979 that overthrew the Shah of Iran, the new Islamic republic, led by Shite Muslim Clerics, saw Israel as an illegitimate state with no right to exist - certainly not amongst Muslim nations. Iran was also very antagonistic at that time against the west - with the new leader, Khomeini, declaring that the U.S. was the "Great Satan." During the revolution, the Islamic revolutionists famously stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, holding 52 Americans for 444 days. This led to the U.S. halting diplomatic relations with Iran.

Throughout the 1990's both the U.S. and Israel accused Iran of sponsoring various terrorist attacks against them. Although hostile toward one another, Israel and Iran continued relatively peacefully. This was mainly due to them having a common enemy - Iraq. However, since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, Iran has turned its spotlight on Israel.

In 2005, President Ahmadinejad was elected in Iran. Ahmadinejad publicly denied the Holocaust, and was even quoted as saying he believed Israel should be "wiped off the map". He frequently called for the elimination of Israel, a key ally of the U.S.

This drove the U.S. to rally international support against Iran's nuclear activity, causing international sanctions to be put in place which have crippled Iran's economy. These began in 2006.

This all really originated around Iran's hatred of Israel.

However, with the election of a more moderate President, Hassan Rouhani back in August, Iran has made efforts to open up negotiations with America and European countries, leading to this deal. Tensions between Iran and the U.S. and Europe have eased. However Israel still have major concerns and rightly so.

Even during the negotiations in Geneva, Iran's Supreme Leader -Khamenei publicly insulted Israel in Tehran. He was reported to have said Israeli officials "cannot be even called humans" and referred to Netanyahu as "the rabid dog of the region."
http://edition.cnn.com/2013/11/24/world/meast/iran-israel/

Naftali Bennett, Israeli Minister of Trade and Industry said: "If in five years, a nuclear suitcase explodes in New York or Madrid, it will be because of the agreement that was signed this morning."

One nation which has always supported Iran's nuclear programme is Russia. The deal was described almost as a victory for Russia who has long been working with Iran to help them with their Nuclear development. Russia's Vladimir Putin said after the deal was struck "A breakthrough step has been made, but only the first on a long and difficult path. As the result of talks...we managed to get closer to untying one of the most difficult knots in world politics". Once again we see Russia's influence in world politics, as it seeks to help the interests of its allies and once again we see the world falling in line with Russia's view of things.

A New Shift In Middle East Alliances
The Israeli ambassador to the U.K.  -Daniel Taub was reported by the Independent newspaper to have said:

"If you look at the region you see this very radical axis that runs from Tehran to Damascus to Beirut and actually on to Gaza, and I think that we are not alone [in being worried] about it... There are many countries that look on these issues and it’s a reminder that if we can rise above some of our immediate differences and paradigms we actually have an awful lot in common, many of our most fundamental strategic concerns are actually aligned, and of course we would be interested in trying to deepen relationships on that basis.”

He's talking here about the Gulf States who are also very concerned about Irans nuclear capabilities  For the Biblical significance of these new shifting regional alliances which are beginning to be formed in the Middle East, between Israel and its Sunni Arab neighbours in the Gulf, please see last week's Bible in the News.

Bible Prophecy & Iran
So - why is all this interesting about Iran and how is this the Bible in the News? Well Iran is mentioned as "Persia" in the latter day prophecy of Ezekiel 38:5. This chapter records that "Persia" (Iran) will be in an alliance with European and North African nations - headed up by Russia. This alliance invades Israel from the north.

How amazing it is then, when we see relations between countries starting to move in line with Bible predictions. The west has again demonstrated that it is moving more inline with Russia's world view. Indeed the prophetic jigsaw puzzle is slowly coming together and will be completed when the Lord Jesus Christ returns to the earth to save Israel and re-establish God's Kingdom.

God will save his people
It is this point that Benjamin Netenyahu simply fails to recognise. In the clip we played at the start you may have noted him saying "It is my solemn responsibility to protect and defend the one and only Jewish state...". Many in Israel trust in him to do just this but the Jewish people would do far better to trust in the God of their ancestors and to seek His mercy. As a nation we know from the Bible that soon a time of tribulation such as never was will befall them. It would be far better for individuals within the nation to turn to the God of Abraham, Isaac and Jacob who is in control of world affairs and to seek His truth and mercy.

Psalm 115 declares: "O Israel, trust thou in Yahweh (the LORD): he is their help and their shield."

The question for us all is do we trust in Him? The living God.

This has been Matt Davies joining you. Join us again next week God Willing for another Bible in the News.


First Sinai-based al Qaeda cell infiltrates the West Bank

First Sinai-based al Qaeda cell infiltrates the West Bank 
Debka 28-Nov-13 

The three terrorists killed by Israeli forces in the south Hebron village Yata Tuesday, Nov. 26, belonged to the first al Qaeda cell to infiltrate the West Bank from Sinai, most likely through Jordan, debkafile reports. They came to establish a major new network for attacking Israel and the Palestinian Authority - hence the combined army, Shin Bet and special anti-terror force’s expeditious action to terminate the cell. It is now feared to be the harbinger of more such cells currently embedded around Israel’s borders in Sinai, Gaza, Syria and Lebanon. 

Washington decides to “embrace” Israel with benefits

Washington decides to “embrace” Israel with benefits 
Debka 27-Nov-13 

President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry have decided to end the row with the Netanyahu government over the interim nuclear accord signed with Iran Sunday, Nov. 24 in Geneva, partly to gain the prime minister’s cooperation for bringing the peace process with the Palestinians to a resolution. On this they are set. Instead of hitting back at Binyamin Netanyahu, Washington is lining up a package of benefits, including an upgrade of the Israeli Air Force with new offensive measures currently not in its possession. This upgrade will be affected by the level of Iran’s compliance or non-compliance with its obligations under the first-step accord. 

November 28, 2013 Briefs 
    Palestinian rocks strike Jerusalem car, injure Israeli baby 
    The baby was hospitalized with a serious head injury when cars driving in the Jerusalem district of Armon Hanatziv came under a hail of rocks thrown by Palestinians Thursday night. 
    EU: Iran's six-month nuclear freeze not yet started 
    Iran's six-month temporary rollback of its nuclear activities agreed to in Geneva Sunday has not begun, said Michael Mann, spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton. "It will also depend on the outcome of technical discussions with Iran.” 
    Obama calls Saudi King amid deteriorating elations 
    President Barack Obama phoned Saudi King Abdullah on Wednesday to discuss the interim nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers. In the face of bitter Saudi criticism, Obama emphasized that it would be important for Iran to follow through on commitments made in the deal, the White House said.

Debka, Briefs

November 26, 2013 Briefs 
    Israel’s security cabinet discusses nuclear accord with Iran 
    The security cabinet held a special meeting Tuesday to consider the implications of the new nuclear accord with Iran, the Syrian war, Hizballah and other current threats to national security. The session was unusually long and is expected to be carried over to Wednesday. IDF and intelligence chiefs gave the ministers special briefings. 

November 27, 2013 Briefs 
    Iran FM Zarif: Iran will continue building Arak reactor 
    Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said Wednesday, Iran will pursue construction at the Arak heavy water reactor despite the deal he signed with world powers Sunday to shelve a project capable of yielding plutonium for nuclear weapons, reversing a concession hailed by Barack Obama as key to the deal. France called it a violation. State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said she wasn’t sure what Zarif meant but road or building work might be allowable. 
    Ten Palestinian youths indicted for Jerusalem attacks 
    Dozens of complaints of Palestinian rock and firebomb attacks in and around NE Jerusalem, targeting Hadassah Hospital, the Hebrew University and road traffic, led the Jerusalem police to the neighboring village of Issawiya and the break-up of two gangs of assailants. Its 10 members, all teens, members of the radical Democratic Front terrorist organization, were indicted Wednesday. 
    Assad regime will attend Geneva II 
    The Assad government said Wednesday that it will send representatives to the Syrian peace conference opening in Geneva on Jan. 22. The Syrian opposition refuses to attend unless the agenda provides for Bashar Assad’s ouster. 
    Two Britons arrested in Kenya 
    The two Britons were arrested by anti-terror police in the southern beach resort of Diano two months after Islamist gunmen stormed a Nairobi shopping mall and killed 67 people. An Interpol Red Notice warrant is still out for the suspected mastermind British Samantha Lewthwaite, known as the “White Widow.” 
    Tehran: White house is lying about nuclear accord details 
    In the first major crisis of confidence, the Iranian foreign ministry Spokeswoman Marziyeh Afkham Wednesday rejected the White House version of the nuclear deal agreed in Geneva four days ago, and accused Washington of releasing a “fact sheet that is a one-sided version of the agreed text” to “mislead the American public.” This version, said Tehran, was “invalid.” 

Jerusalem, Riyadh stunned: Obama makes Iran 7th world power

Jerusalem, Riyadh stunned: Obama makes Iran 7th world power 
Debka 25-Nov-13 

President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry have secretly agreed to elevate Iran to the status of seventh world power for signing the interim nuclear accord in Geneva Sunday, Nov. 24, promising to live up to its obligations in the coming six months and for then signing a comprehensive agreement. While demanding respect as a regional power, never in its wildest dreams did Tehran expect big power standing with a recognized authoritative role in the wider Middle East, including the Palestinian issue. Jerusalem and Riyadh are aghast. 

The US-Israel Nuclear Feud. Obama’s Diplomacy Blamed for Letting Iran Reach the Nuclear Threshold

The US-Israel Nuclear FeudObama’s Diplomacy Blamed for Letting Iran Reach the Nuclear Threshold 
Debka 29-Nov-13 

The nine-point package of US benefits delivered to the office of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu this week to mollify him for the interim nuclear accord signed with Iran Sunday, Nov, 24, was greeted with shrugs. 
Netanyahu understood what was behind it. President Barack Obama wanted to put an end to his fierce verbal assaults and draw his government back into normal cooperation with Washington, in readiness for the resumption of US-sponsored peace talks with the Palestinians, for which Secretary of State John Kerry arrives next week. 
In the White House, DEBKA Weekly’s Washington sources this week picked up the following counter-attack on the Israeli prime minister: He complains that the Geneva deal recognized Iran as a pre- nuclear state, they say. But Iran reached that point more a year ago, so why didn’t Israel strike its nuclear program then or even earlier in 2011? All the administration did in Geneva was to freeze the current situation, for which Israel is just as responsible as America. 
This argument is as hypocritical as it is misleading, because it blames Israel for trusting Obama’s promises instead of pushing back harder, or else following through on its threatened military option on the assumption that the Obama administration would have provided full backing. But would it? 
For now, Washington is treating Iran’s near-nuclear bomb capacity as an accomplished fact and demands Jerusalem’s continued cooperation in addressing it. 

Promises, promises… 

DEBKA Weekly has obtained the nine-point US package on offer to the Netanyahu government for its cooperation: 
1. If Iran is still dragging its feet on a final deal in a year’s time - a period amply covered by the six-month negotiating period to which Tehran committed in Geneva - then the Obama administration would turn relations with Tehran back to the situation prior to the Geneva accord. 
Israeli officials don’t quite understand this point, considering that Obama’s dialogue with Tehran did not start in Geneva but ran on secret channels for years before that. 
2. All US intelligence resources will be pressed into service to ensure that Iran’s nuclear weapons program remains frozen where it is now. 
3. If Iran is discovered reneging on its pledge to convert its 20-percent enriched Iranian stocks to oxide powder and reconverts them back to their highly-enriched state, Washington will deem Tehran in violation of its commitment under the interim nuclear accord. 
4. The US will upgrade Israel’s military capabilities, including its air force (as first revealed exclusively by debkafile on Nov. 26). 

US intelligence will track watchdog findings 

5. The administration will no longer interfere in congressional initiatives to enact tougher sanctions against Iran, provided new legislation takes effect only if US nuclear diplomacy with Iran fails. 
6. US intelligence experts will receive footage from the cameras the International Atomic Energy Agency has installed at nuclear facilities and examine them daily, simultaneously with the watchdog. 
7. The same access will apply to the film from the centrifuge production chambers. 
8. The US will place a cap on the grade of uranium enrichment permitted under the final comprehensive accord and promises Israel it will be less than 20 percent. 
9. The two sets of incentives the US is submitting to Israel and Saudi Arabia will be considered a single, comprehensive package. 
The Netanyahu government is still examining these points to determine how far they go toward partly offsetting the substantial gains made by Iran toward a nuclear weapon capacity, which the Geneva accord freezes in place - at best. 

US Enticements for Saudi Arabia and Israel. Obama Prepares 15 “Prizes” to Cool Tempers in Riyadh and Jerusalem

US Enticements for Saudi Arabia and IsraelObama Prepares 15 “Prizes” to Cool Tempers in Riyadh and Jerusalem 
Debka 29-Nov-13 

US President Barack Obama thinks he has concocted 15 irresistible prizes for pacifying and allaying the concerns of Saudi King Abdullah and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu over his planned partnership with Tehran for the management of the region’s affairs. 
These inducements have only just been presented to Riyadh and Jerusalem, DEBKA Weekly’s sources report. They may have been framed some time ago as part of the checks and balances built into US concessions for the first-step nuclear deal signed with Iran in Geneva on Sunday, Nov. 24. Or they may have been thrown together in a hurry to calm the angry storms stirred up by that deal and melt some of the ice overlaying Saudi and Israeli relations with Washington. 
However generous the packages, they cannot overcome the serious deficiency of trust which mars the two governments’ attitude towards the Obama administration and was sharply exacerbated by the deal with Iran. President Barack Obama’s oft-declared determination to prevent Iran gaining a nuclear weapon is greeted with unbelief in both Middle East capitals. Indeed, both are sure that in Geneva, he knowingly opened the door to a nuclear-armed Iran and that Tehran is more than ready to walk through that door. 

The perks for Saudi Arabia 

To pierce this high wall of mistrust, the administration this week delivered to Riyadh and Jerusalem two packages of tranquilizers. Their contents will not gladden hearts in Tehran because they impinge on the big-power privileges the US has promised the Islamic republic. (see a separate article in this issue for details.) 
Washington offered Saudi Arabia six inducements for burying the hatchet, including major policy U-turns: 
1. In one such reversal, the US is willing to help stabilize interim rule in Cairo, withdraw support from the Muslim Brotherhood, stop demanding the release from jail of deposed President Mohamed Morsi and assist in the transition to civilian rule - even if the military strongman Gen. Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi is elected president. 
Obama is willing to work with the Saudi rulers to achieve these goals, but only if Riyadh cooperates and abandons its decision to pursue an independent foreign policy as announced this week. If it refuses, the Obama administration will continue on its own path. 
2. Washington promises to make every possible effort to promote Israeli-Palestinian peace talks to meet an incessant Saudi demand. 

Obama promises to help Libya out of its crisis 

3. The US will abandon its stand-aside posture on the Syrian question and take the driving seat for a political solution of the war against the Assad regime, a seat currently occupied by Moscow. 
4. America will turn on the tap for non-military assistance of food, medicines, building materials and vehicles to rebel-held areas of Syria. 
5. The administration has informed Riyadh and the Gulf emirates that the US will apply itself to dealing with the Libyan crisis: American resources and manpower will be made available for establishing and training a national Libyan army, a police force and intelligence agencies, and preparing them to defend the regime against the militias sowing mayhem in the country. 
This assurance to Riyadh included a promise to help the Saudis install a robust central government in Tripoli capable of extending its rule to the rest of the country. 
6. Washington assured Riyadh it would take action to stabilize the Bahrain kingdom. A similar, though reverse, US pledge was made to Tehran.

The Geneva Accord: The View from Tehran. Revolutionary Guards’ Schemes for Wrecking Geneva Deal, Ousting Rouhani and Zarif

The Geneva Accord: The View from TehranRevolutionary Guards’ Schemes for Wrecking Geneva Deal, Ousting Rouhani and Zarif 
Debka 29-Nov-13 

Iran’s radical clerical regime is being pushed to dangerous extremes by the strong vibrations rolling into Tehran from the first-step nuclear accord Iran signed in Geneva Sunday, Nov. 24, with the six world powers. 
Some Iranian experts advise DEBKA Weekly not to rule out a Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) coup d’etat to depose President Hassan Rouani - or even Foreign Minister Javad Zarif’s assassination - for the crime of seducing supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei into going along with the nuclear deal. 
The IRGC commanders Gen. Mohammad-Ali Jaafari and the head of its Al Qods Brigades Gen. Qassem Soleimeni lead the pack baying for the nuclear accord to be scrapped and its authors eliminated. 
They are taking care not to vent their fury in public, fearing to directly cross the supreme leader who congratulated the negotiators on their success. 
Normally vocal about their views, now these hard-line generals are being cautiously reticent, skirting around the word “coup” even in their close-door counsels – not just to guard against betrayal, but because they would need the supreme leader’s blessing for lending religious sanctity to any extreme action they may take. 
Fearing that Rouhani and Jarif had got into Khamenei’s head, Gen. Jaafari was afraid to speak out about his reservations when Khamenei invited him to do so. He decided to stay mum in the face of the supreme leader’s staunch commitment to the diplomatic path set by the preliminary nuclear deal with the world powers. 

The IRGC’s schemes for scuttling the nuclear accord 

Adapting their steps to this situation, the Guards generals, set their sights on derailing the accord – in the first instance by preventing its implementation. This objective was well served by the battle of versions evolving between Tehran and Washington on its interpretation. (See the first article.) 
Zarif says emphatically that the document formally recognizes Iran’s nuclear rights and right to enrichment. His detractors accuse him of rescinding Iran’s right to stock enriched uranium or go back to 20 percent enrichment. They are also boiling over the Iranian negotiators’ consent – denied later by Zarif – to halt construction of the heavy water reactor at Arak in defiance of Khamenei’s express veto on this concession. 
All in all, no one is certain about what exactly Zarif actually signed off for. So the IRGC hope to sink the agreement by keeping the nuclear program running as usual, using the uncertainty as their pretext to claim that Tehran tested the Western powers’ good faith and found it wanting. 
It is important to point out here that only three parties hold the keys to Iran’s nuclear facilities - certainly for its most secret sites. They are Ali Khamenei, the Atomic Energy Commission now headed by former nuclear negotiator Ali Akbar Salehi and the Revolutionary Guards. 
The IRGC commands physical access to the facilities by the guards and supervisors it has posted at the entrances and exits. 
While the supreme authority over the nuclear program rests with Khamenei, the IRGC has the resources to defy his wishes. 

Infighting in Tehran will determine the fate of nuclear diplomacy 

The six-month period remaining to negotiate a final agreement on Iran’s nuclear program is the potential arena for a three-way struggle for dominance. The outcome will determine whether it is at all possible to settle the issue of Iran’s nuclear program by diplomacy. 
The hard-line generals have prepared more than one monkey wrench for throwing into the diplomatic process: Another is to keep the Rouhani administration constantly on edge by mobilizing a radical parliamentary majority to vote against ratifying the accord. Rouhani would be discredited and sanctions relief held in abeyance, so generating a crisis the president may not survive. 
To counter the IRGC’s anti-diplomacy campaign, DEBKA Weekly’s sources report that Rouhani and Zarif have been singing its praises to various quarters inside the regime: The preliminary and the comprehensive accords down the line, they say, will finally smooth out the historic hostility between the Islamic Republic and the United States and restore Iran to its rightful place among the family of nations. 
If the accords go through, the Americans will be ready to pull their war fleet out of the Persian Gulf and make way for Iran to fill the gap as the unchallenged regional powerhouse. 

Arab nations opened up to Iranian penetration 

Israel’s security would be badly jolted and the surrounding Arab nations opened up to Iranian penetration. The radical IRGC heads found all these advantages very appealing, but not worth giving up the goal for which Iran has been striving for thirty years of a nuclear bomb. 
To win them round, Zarif tried lambasting the US and Israel. He also insisted that the accord concluded in Geneva was not enduringly binding and Iran could walk away from it at any time. 
Rouhani, in a speech marking his first 100 days in office, painted a bleak picture of the economy, implying that Iran had no option but to accept the Geneva deal. But he did not overdo the gloom, fearing to give the Guards a pretext for declaring a national emergency in order to seize control of the government administration and reduce Khamenei to a figurehead leader. 
In the course of the six-month run-up to a final nuclear accord, the skirmishing within the Islamic regime may spill over into violence. The Guards are still contemplating getting rid of Zarif as a warning to President Rouhani not to step out of line.